BOKO HARAM: UNDERSTANDING THE MENACE AND RESPONDING APPROPRIATELY - EMI IYALLA

The Boko Haram  terrorists are a very small group of men and probably a few women, with absolutely no hope of taking on the government directly, they lack the sophistication and resources for that; they are largely isolated from the public, at best they stay in tents or caves, chances of an underground bunker is even small. They are fighting for a cause they cannot win; however, they are desperate to leave a mark. This is the mission of every terrorist group.

From the Al-Shabaab in Somali to the Al-Badrs in Pakistan, their names are different, but there operations, tactics and fears are the same. As we all know, humans should never be underestimated, neither over estimated.  Being small in number, they use their size to their advantage.  They can multiply the effect of their small number into great strength by maximizing the elusiveness and mobility that comes with smallness, and make the military look stupid.  It’s always easier to catch a big  rat than a big one. Being large makes any animal an easier target.

Our success in fighting this menace will be matching our strength to their weakness.

Truth be told, the damage Boko Haram has done in physical value is small compared to the psychological damage. Their bombings are not so different from the bombings that were carried out in the creeks of the delta, what is different however, is the dramatic and unpredictable manner in which they carried out. They expect Nigerians to be emotional; to resort to anger, frustration, fear and other associated emotions. They are hardly disappointed. A brief look at all their antecedents supports this point.

Given their renewed effort at inflicting maximum damage, Nigeria’s leadership got distracted. The efforts that were initially planned for carrying out the Transformation Agenda of President Goodluck Jonathan became channelled towards fighting terrorism. As expected, the public became highly polarized. Those on the side of the government became more fervent in their desire for repression and revenge. Those in the middle whose businesses and families were directly or indirectly affected found themselves resenting the government. Those on the opposition were galvanized, many of them now crying for a revolution, change and other similar slogans. With the military everywhere, a bomb exploding here or there, today at a motor Park, tomorrow at an army barracks gave the impression that the terrorists were much larger than the Nigerian military. The government’s response increased the terrorists’ public presence, helping them gain more recognition, uniting the opposition and those affected against t the government. Abuja did not seem as invulnerable as before. If Abuja can be attacked, where cannot be, many would lament.

History has taught us that most terrorists group eventually fail. They hardly succeed. They are usually too detached from the society at large; their actions are not rational. Society generally views them as wicked. People place curses on them, even their few sympathizers eventually abandon them when they see through their deceit and wickedness – to say the least.

The end game of every war is to gain power and control. But in the case of terrorism, they know they can’t gain power or control. What they seek is to achieve something very sinister – they seek to create chaos, and the space for some kind of change, religious or political, and even both in some cases.  Their goals are rather very easy to achieve – create mayhem and confusion in the country.

Boko Haram’s strategy and aim is to create maximum chaos and disorder. They can hope for some side benefits– a civil or religious war (which is at best unlikely), a change in government, and the worship of their leader,            Abubakar Shekau also known by the alias Darul Tawheed – but all these are corroboratory effects. By nature, they understand that they are fighting something way bigger than they can ever be. An oversized national power that has all the force on its side added to the support of a “terrorist – hating” international community. So they somehow know they are eventually going down, they just want to take as many people as they can with them.

As a nation, we really need to think deep and understand what is going on here.  We need to put logic to their pattern and see things dis-affectionately. The group, Boko Haram act seems to invite a strong response from the government, when they know they won’t be at the place the government will usually respond at. If they Bomb a place X for instance, they expect the government to send troops to place X, when in fact they quickly move to place Y. In this case, reaction replaces intelligence. To find this small group of imbeciles requires careful analysis and, again, as I recommended not long ago, unemotional response.

If this is not done, human right abuses will be inevitable. I remember a few years ago, in my community of Soku, in Rivers state, shortly after a militant group had kidnapped and escaped with some foreign oil workers, the military came one day after to arrest innocent community youths, when in reality, the kidnappers would logically not remain there to be arrested.

In most cases, by the time the government is reacting, the culprits have usually left the scene, standing by and waiting to have a good laugh at the disproportional reaction the military usually gives, most time on innocent people.

The question remains how a small and disorganised Boko Haram has gained international fame. Well, it is the same strategy all terrorist group use:  Attack a big fish and gain the media spectacle. But hide so you are not caught. Their small number helps them in this. Their recent attacks have helped them to draw in the most attention possible, one tailored for the media, and the other to stir up the nation’s emotions in as strong a manner as possible. The viral nature of the media, especially social media and fear, the emotions that can be fanned into something uncontrollable has helped them become more popular than their strength can carry, way more popular than their wildest imaginations thought possible.

It is hard to estimate how deeply our emotions are engaged and distorting our plans. Our media and how we react is helping them magnify their strength and gain publicity and maybe recruits. We cannot see through their intentions; we don’t know their plans, they are able to use disinformation, misinformation and making us know what they want, which are mostly directed at taking our eyes off their next plan; while we are as clear as clean water  to them. This gives them more strategic advantage over us. They murder at will, whereas we have to tiptoe through a moral minefield, fearing violating human rights.  Again, the polarization effect comes into play. The public rains insults on the government, not realising that the problem is not the government.

In solving the Boko Haram menace,  I would suggest we heed the advice of acian strategist of old, Sun-tzu when he suggested that “What is of supreme importance in war is to attack the enemy’s strategy.” we should look at the group  -their structure, modus operandi, people, funding, logistics, etc.  with a careful plan to infiltrate them and hit them hard from within.

The proper response to them and any violence of sort depends on first understanding their dynamic, how they tick, their motives, etc. The various traps it sets–the overreaction, the impatience and desire for immediate reprisals, the polarization it tempts us into– can only be avoided if we first understood. We must aim at their weaknesses, not at the illusion they create. These include their ability to communicate, to fund themselves, and to recruit sympathizers. We needed to carefully aim at these points of vulnerability. If during these years we had degraded their ability to fund themselves, to communicate, to gain recruits by working to gain more political goodwill in the north eastern region, they would have begun to reveal more weaknesses. There are several insinuations that they are being funded by politician XYZ.  Freeze their accounts until they prove otherwise. Let them live on minimal state allowance for the period of investigations. The government must be bold to do this and the citizen should support the government on this.

In conclusion, Boko Haram, like all groups of its kind function on the attention and chaos they can get. We must starve them to death and hit them hard where it hurts most.